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Figured it out

Posted By: niuniuch
Date: Friday, 21 November 2014, at 7:32 p.m.

In Response To: Figured it out (niuniuch)

For those of you that were interested it's actually the most basic theory and has nothing to do with market losers and not much with match scores.

The key is the additional winning chances when holding the cube. If you double you have 68% to win the match, which is the cubeless chance to win the game. If you hold on to the cube your winning chances are over 78% (I checked cubeful equity in money play, at -2 -3 the chance is slightly higher, because opp take point is higher than for money)

So if you hold on to the cube your MWC is: 78%*75% (if you win) + 22%*50% (if you lose). That equals 69,6%, so your MWC is higher if you hold on to the cube.

End of story.

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