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BGonline.org Forums
Suggested Idea for Performance Grading
Posted By: Coolrey In Response To: Suggested Idea for Performance Grading (Timothy Chow)
Date: Monday, 6 October 2014, at 2:47 a.m.
I don't think making checker play errors increases equity in any way... It just drags you down in the long run, probably why my MWP is not over 60%.
People capable of playing 2 PR consistently, are just more accurate than I am, and more accurate than others too. They abhor giving a double that the bots wouldn't give, and so they don't, (they've learned not to). They key in on what would XG do, while I am wondering what will this guy do? I take passes all the time, and drop takes too. If you don't put the question to people, then they can't make a mistake.
I sit down and immediately begin trying to win the match. I probe with the cube early to learn something about my opponent when I don't know him.
With Mochy being a known quantity, and me too, there wasn't going to be much information gathering. I just knew that even he would not play the game well enough to achieve XG's stated equities at various stages. Unfortunately I played so horribly I severed the hamstring that the dice had already strained and limped home a loser.
I would say that anyone in Mochy's under 4 club would never steal points, either by doubling when a guy is ready to pass a take, or by taking a "technical" pass and gaining greatly from a journeyman player's poor execution. Remember, I think anything XG evaluates as 1.1 is better to take than pass irl. If you never take a pass, your error rate is low or zero, but you never benefit because people (including me) play horribly after giving away the cube. You also will never be able to benefit by putting pressure on them with a subsequent 4 cube. Big cubes are innately scarier than 2 cubes, and you never know what will happen.
If someone squanders as little as 10% of his equity when XG evaluates the doubling position as 1.1, then the equity becomes 0.990. I have nauseated many opponents by taking worse cubes, even some that they were too good to double. A plan doesn't have to be great to work, just have one! I don't recommend taking when someone is too good, btw. It has just happened with my "approach" to match doubling strategy. I am now trying to clean up my game and do better, but how much better can one do, exactly??
The winning zone is not a place that a player capable of playing 2 or less should necessarily strive for, it is just the place where a lot of winning takes place, and I pay attention. I have resided in that range for 10 years, Akiko Yazawa the new World Champion lives there too. Its merely an observation and maybe it is even more accurate to say it is between 4.5 and 6.0 or something. A bad take, or an early double or redouble can put you right up to 5... But those things MAY well work better OTB than they would against XG, who makes no mistakes and loses nothing to fear! People do, though, and that is whom you will be playing with.
Everyone secretly believes that the bots "punish" us when we make a mistake. Hitting fly shots, winning improbable/impossible races, etc. etc. I like to think that those things don't happen as much OTB, I could be wrong, but no reason my superstition should not work as well as anyone elses, lol. In addition my opponents don't always DESERVE to beat me, because they are playing bad too. Steering into the unknown zone seems to work somehow, and 4-6 error rates gets into way more grey areas of matches. Grey is the way to go, I think.
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