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BGonline.org Forums
gnubg - ‘Analyse -> Market Window’ function
Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov In Response To: gnubg - ‘Analyse -> Market Window’ function (sebalotek)
Date: Thursday, 14 August 2014, at 10:37 p.m.
My query was more pertaining to the gnubg software functionality: should I infer that the gnubg market window function is effectively only of any practical use in last roll situations and not for the many rolls which happen before that point?
I wouldn't say "Only..." Lets say you know that in money game your window opens at 50% and assuming perfect efficiency closes at 80%. Lets say you also know that at some score in a match your window opens at 45% and closes at 75%. This should tell you that at this score you perhaps should double more aggressively than for money. Right?
And if I understand correctly, there is no way to see (in gnubg) at what precise percentage I should start to sensibly offer the cube?
GNUBG will not tell you at what percentage you should double, unless it is a last roll position, or some equivalent.
I feel that such a feature that would display that particular statistic per move would be *really* useful. In fact I thought that that important number should be part of what a 'Market Window' function should illustrate? It seems a little counter-intuitive to me.
That would be cool, wouldn't it? Unfortunately this is too complicated. Besides gammon and backgammon rates there are many factors such as market losers, cube efficiency, probability of redoubling in and out later, etc. They all affect "real" doubling window. As position changes, they also change from roll to roll. Because they constantly change, doubling window changes along with them.
Also, on the other side of the coin (when the cube is offered to me) it would be really good if the Market Window function could also tell me my precise Take Point per move too. Or are these sorts of thing not possible to calculate / display per move?
Decision whether to take cube or not is a bit easier from theoretical point of view that decision whether or not to cube, since you usually don't have to wory about market losers. In match play some of cubes your opponent offers are dead (you will never use them). In those cases you can use numbers from the market window. If the cube is of any use to you, your real take point will depend on how often this cube will be of any use to you. This will vary from score to score and from position to position, so one answer that fits all situations, again, cannot be given.
" A market window is the range between the point of "first double" and "last take". In moneygames it's usually between 50% - 75% winning chances depending on the value of the cube. "
I didn't follow the link, but from your quote it seems that this description is wrong.
Maybe it's just me misunderstanding terminology or semantics but I still dont understand what the intended usefulness of the gnubg Market Window function is. Or what 'first double' means in the explanation above? I interpreted it as meaning when you get within your doubling (market) window, you can then correctly offer your first double.
No, this is not just you. It is not the first time this sort of question is being asked. First double in explanation above means a point when a double, theoretically, could be correct. It also assumes that no gammons are won by either side. The only situations (I can think of) where this number is a correct doubling point is when cube will be of no use to anyone later. For example on the last roll. Or maybe in a match where maximum cube value is capped at 2. Or on auto-redouble (e.g. when you need 3 points to win match and your opponent needs 2 points, and you holding a 2-cube).
I must admit that I'm relatively rubbish with the cube - but what practical uses have other players found for 'Market Window' in laymans terms if it does not actually tell you the border of when you can correctly offer the cube?
Well, you could look at dead cube take-point and live cube take-point, and your real take-point will be somewhere in between 99% of the time. How close to one or another end Will depend on the score and cube vig. Market window usually provides clues, and not answers. How much these clues are helpful to you will depend on your understanding of cube theory.
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