"An interesting variant would be to move a spare from the midpoint to the 6pt. Then I would be tempted to play 24/20 6/4 instead"
I would have played 24/20 6/4 too, un-stacking the 6pt instead of the mid. I think it is probably still the wrong idea, the safer play, two up from the rear wins again.
         
 
         
 | | White is XG Roller+
score: 0
pip: 137 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 156
score: 0
Blue is ian dunstan |
|
| XGID=-----BEbB---cD---bbd-b--B-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 24/20 | eq: -0.682 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.25% (G:6.05% B:0.21%)
65.75% (G:20.67% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.694...-0.671) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 6/4 | eq: -0.721 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.83% (G:7.38% B:0.28%)
66.17% (G:22.84% B:0.81%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.735...-0.707) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | 8/4 6/4 | eq: -0.747 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.65% (G:7.13% B:0.20%)
68.35% (G:18.22% B:0.89%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 24/22 6/2 | eq: -0.780 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.19% (G:7.38% B:0.22%)
66.81% (G:23.90% B:0.81%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 24/22 13/9 | eq: -0.797 (-0.115) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.42% (G:7.12% B:0.24%)
67.58% (G:22.48% B:1.03%) | |
|
| 6. | 4-ply | 13/9 6/4 | eq: -0.798 (-0.116) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.93% (G:7.20% B:0.24%)
69.07% (G:18.90% B:1.22%) | |
|
| |
1 Truncated at 10 moves using 4-ply.
216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94696176
First 3 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 3-ply Red, cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10