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DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Friday, 18 July 2014, at 11:23 a.m.

In Response To: DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout *** (Tom Keith)

TK said: "I think the numbers Leo is referring to are the "probability of being best" numbers (shown in square brackets). This number tells you how likely it is that the indicated play will still be on top of you continue the rollout indefinitely."

Right. I am trying to understand the "probability of being best" numbers, especially in the context of the confidence vs. rollout time tradeoff.

So, if XG says after n games rolled out that the probability of a move being right is 100% and the other evaluated moves' probability of being right is 0%, what is gained by rolling the position further (increasing n)?

Messages In This Thread

• DQ: Consider the bar point?
  leobueno -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 11:33 a.m.
  • DQ: Consider the bar point?
    Wolfgang -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 12:31 p.m.
  • DQ: Consider the bar point?
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 2:06 p.m.
    • Calculating gammon values
      Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 4:07 p.m.
      • Calculating gammon values
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 6:42 p.m.
      • Calculating gammon values
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 6:45 p.m.
      • Calculating gammon values
        phil simborg -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 12:55 a.m.
  • 62S-53P-63
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 3:09 p.m.
    • 62S-53P-63
      leobueno -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 3:30 p.m.
  • Interesting Variants: 62S-31P-61 – 62S-42P-61 – 62S-53P-61
    Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 9:57 p.m.
    • Interesting Variants: 62S-31P-61 – 62S-42P-61 – 62S-53P-61
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 12:15 a.m.
      • Interesting Variants: 62S-31P-61 – 62S-42P-61 – 62S-53P-61
        Igor -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 1:46 a.m.
    • 62S-31P-61 – 62S-42P-61 – 62S-53P-61 – 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
      Taper_Mike -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 8:38 a.m.
  • DQ: Consider the bar point?
    ben -- Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 10:41 p.m.
  • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
    leobueno -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 11:13 a.m.
    • 62S-53P-63, Rollout for money
      Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 2:15 p.m.
      • 62S-53P-63, 1296 trial Rollout AtS
        ah_clem -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 7:07 p.m.
        • 62S-53P-63, 1296 trial Rollout At reversed score
          ah_clem -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 8:38 p.m.
          • 62S-53P-63, 1296 trial Rollout At reversed score
            Bob Koca -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 11:16 p.m.
    • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 11:38 p.m.
      • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
        Bob Koca -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 12:59 a.m.
      • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
        Tom Keith -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 2:12 a.m.
        • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
          leobueno -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 11:23 a.m.
          • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
            Bob Koca -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 12:45 p.m.
          • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
            Timothy Chow -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 10:14 p.m.
        • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 10:00 p.m.
          • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
            Tom Keith -- Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 12:02 p.m.
            • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 4:38 p.m.
              • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
                Tom Keith -- Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 6:24 p.m.
                • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
                  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 23 July 2014, at 10:12 p.m.
                  • DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
                    Tom Keith -- Thursday, 24 July 2014, at 12:44 a.m.
      • Variance Reduction
        rambiz -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 7:51 a.m.
        • Variance Reduction
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 12:51 p.m.
        • Variance Reduction
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 18 July 2014, at 10:27 p.m.
          • Variance Reduction
            rambiz -- Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 12:33 p.m.
            • Variance Reduction
              Tom Keith -- Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 1:23 p.m.
            • Variance Reduction
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 4:34 p.m.
              • Variance Reduction
                rambiz -- Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 9:12 p.m.
                • Variance Reduction
                  Bob Koca -- Monday, 21 July 2014, at 12:37 a.m.
                  • Variance Reduction
                    rambiz -- Monday, 21 July 2014, at 3:01 p.m.
                    • Variance Reduction
                      Tom Keith -- Monday, 21 July 2014, at 5:53 p.m.
                      • Variance Reduction
                        rambiz -- Monday, 21 July 2014, at 6:19 p.m.
                        • Variance Reduction
                          Bob Koca -- Monday, 21 July 2014, at 6:37 p.m.
                          • Variance Reduction
                            rambiz -- Monday, 21 July 2014, at 9:42 p.m.
                            • Variance Reduction
                              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 22 July 2014, at 3:53 a.m.
                              • Variance Reduction
                                rambiz -- Tuesday, 22 July 2014, at 6:27 p.m.
                                • Variance Reduction
                                  Maik Stiebler -- Wednesday, 23 July 2014, at 1:33 p.m.
                                  • Variance Reduction
                                    rambiz -- Friday, 25 July 2014, at 4:58 p.m.
        • Variance Reduction
          Neil Robins -- Wednesday, 23 July 2014, at 10:47 p.m.
        • Variance Reduction
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 26 July 2014, at 8:14 p.m.
          • Slight correction
            Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 2:53 p.m.
            • Slight correction
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 28 July 2014, at 12:33 a.m.
              • Slight correction
                Timothy Chow -- Monday, 28 July 2014, at 4:54 p.m.
          • Variance Reduction
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 28 July 2014, at 12:36 a.m.