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62S-53P-63, Rollout for money

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 2:15 p.m.

In Response To: DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout *** (leobueno)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AeD---bAd--b-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10

62S-53P-63 [S P36] "<=5


1.Rollout124/18 13/10eq: +0.235
Player:
Opponent:		55.70% (G:13.71% B:0.50%)
44.30% (G:10.47% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.228...+0.242) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 41 minutes
2.Rollout111/5 8/5eq: +0.199 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		54.88% (G:17.37% B:1.10%)
45.12% (G:14.56% B:0.56%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.191...+0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 13 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27246110
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is the money rollout of 62S-53P-63, as promised.

I do not have AtS rollouts. Leobueno provided one for –2–3, though with only 360 trials, making the confidence interval for each play about .026, which makes the interval .026*sqrt2 = .037 for the margin between two plays.

Nevertheless, I've created the table below. The middle column is XGR++ evaluations, and the right-hand column is rollout results (for my money rollout, and Leo's –2–3 rollout). This admittedly scant information tells us that XGR++ has a P-over-S bias of .023 (+/– .011) for money, and .056 (+/– .037) at –2–3.

Projecting this bias onto –3–2 (the reverse score) suggests that P and S are very close, perhaps with a small edge for P. Maybe someone has the time and interest to do a –3–2 rollout (or if not I'll add it to my queue and might get around to it eventually—AtS are low priority for me).

........... Eval ..Rollout
.....Money .[S P13].... [S P36] "<=5
............... –2–3 ....[S P101]... [S P157] "<0.3 only
............... –3–2 ....[P S34].......???

Nack

Key: S = Split-and-down (24/18 13/10), P = Point (11/5 8/5).

Nactation tutorial • explanation of nacbracs

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