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Question about problem 4

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 22 June 2014, at 1:44 a.m.

In Response To: Question about problem 4 (Robert Chow)

If I accept the opponent's offer of playing the extra deuce, 6/4, what is the proper response with 52?

Interesting question. The deeper the opponent's checkers and the more pips he has played, the less motivated one is to split. OTOH, I believe 42P-52 favors S over D by .030 to .035, and I'm not sure the extra 6/4 can overcome that.

Another reference point is 64P-52, where S and D are essentially tied (S has a tiny advantage, around .004). Arguably, as the difference between 42P and 64P is 4 pips, and 42P+2 is halfway in between, we can average the two margins and that will keep S ahead by .018.

I suspect the margin is eaten into more by the awkwardness of the dilly builder Opp wants to unload (though that looks partially offset by odd-number duplication and a less powerful 55 33). However, I still favor S, narrowly.

Nack

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