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Save This Gammon

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 14 June 2014, at 6:07 p.m.

In Response To: Save This Gammon (johnk)

You might get another two rolls but it's not guaranteed so it's important to look at what doublets get you off the gammon in one roll.

7/6 is obvious for the ace and the choice is between 15/12 and 7/4 for the 3. 15/12 doesn't waste any pips so that might be one's first inclination, but then 55 doesn't bear off. So from the point of view of doublets, 7/4 is better.

What if you get two more rolls to save the gammon? You'll want to get two crossovers next time. If you play 15/12 now, then unless you roll a 6 (or doublets) next time, you'll have to get those two crossovers by bearing in from the 7pt. And then for your final roll you'll need a 6 (or doublets). By contrast, after 7/4, you just need to roll a 3 or better to get two crossovers, and if you roll a 4 or better then your last checker will be closer to home than it would have been after the 15/12 play.

I believe that 7/4 should be better than 15/12 by a noticeable margin.

One can look at this decision as a kind of "pay now or pay later" problem. Bearing in from the 7pt usually wastes pips. Do you waste 2 pips now or do you risk wasting more pips bearing them both in later?

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