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Advanced Backgammon #154 -- Rollout and Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Monday, 9 June 2014, at 9:17 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #154 (Igor)

Blue has a definite advantage in timing, so this is a clear double. White has a 5-prime on her own and has a comfortable take.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 112 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 124 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCB-----B--bbbdcB--a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.25% (G:11.81% B:0.34%)	72.51% (G:14.06% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.75% (G:5.62% B:0.18%)	27.49% (G:6.57% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.508	+1.054
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.792 (-0.070)	±0.008 (+0.784..+0.799)
Double/Take:	+0.861	±0.012 (+0.849..+0.873)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.139)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1405227 Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 37 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Giving blue a little more timing while providing an additional builder for the back of the prime makes this into a pass for white.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 112 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 127 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBBB-A---B--bbbdcB--a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.57% (G:12.03% B:0.35%)	76.19% (G:13.21% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.43% (G:5.13% B:0.15%)	23.81% (G:5.65% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.582	+1.203
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.849 (-0.151)	±0.009 (+0.840..+0.858)
Double/Take:	+1.033 (+0.033)	±0.014 (+1.019..+1.048)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1405227 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now playing around white white's timing and structure:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 104 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 124 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCB-----B--bbbcbB-ab-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.89% (G:11.33% B:0.30%)	75.88% (G:12.76% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.11% (G:4.91% B:0.10%)	24.12% (G:4.95% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.584	+1.197
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.876 (-0.124)	±0.009 (+0.867..+0.884)
Double/Take:	+1.029 (+0.029)	±0.014 (+1.015..+1.044)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1405227 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 105 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 124 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCB-----B--bbbcbBa-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.99% (G:10.93% B:0.27%)	75.09% (G:12.12% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.01% (G:4.80% B:0.10%)	24.91% (G:4.88% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.563	+1.153
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.859 (-0.123)	±0.004 (+0.855..+0.862)
Double/Take:	+0.981	±0.007 (+0.975..+0.988)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.019)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1405227 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 104 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 124 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-BBBCB-----B--bbbbbBbb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.93% (G:10.94% B:0.27%)	76.04% (G:12.48% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.07% (G:4.46% B:0.09%)	23.96% (G:4.43% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.585	+1.208
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.891 (-0.109)	±0.007 (+0.884..+0.898)
Double/Take:	+1.043 (+0.043)	±0.012 (+1.032..+1.055)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1405227 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Advanced Backgammon #154
  Igor -- Saturday, 31 May 2014, at 3:23 p.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon #154
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 1 June 2014, at 5:34 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon #154 -- Rollout and Variants
    Igor -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 9:17 p.m.