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Can anyone answer this question?

Posted By: phil simborg
Date: Friday, 6 June 2014, at 4:57 p.m.

In Response To: Simborg v Robertson - Chicago 2014 (Christian Munk-Christensen)

In my last 36 1 point matches played on XG, which I play using a separate nick to keep the record separate, I have averaged 3.1 PR. (I have also played many 1 and 2 point matches at tournaments, on the computer, with many witnesses, and posted PR's of under 2 from time to time.)

So let's say that some great player in LA decided to play me a 1 point match for the board, and he is willing to put up $220.00. And let's say he plays 1 point matches at an average of say, 2 PR. A whole PR better than me...and I think that a top Giant probably would play about there.

How much of an edge does he have in the 1 point match against me? Is there anyone here who can determine that, given equal luck factor? My guess is he would only be about a 53/47 favorite, but that is just a wild guess. There must be a mathematical way to figure how the odds of winning a 1 point match change as the PR changes, isn't there? And while we're at it, how about coming up with a similar formula for a 5, 7 or 9 point match?

If I am right, I'm willing to give away 6 percent just for the pleasure of having the opportunity to play with such a great player.

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