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| XGID=--BBBCCA------------ccbBc-:1:1:-1:41:2:4:0:9:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 41 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 5/Off | eq: +0.9851 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 5/1 4/3 | eq: +0.9811 (-0.0040) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 1/Off | eq: +0.9341 (-0.0509) | |||
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| 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72649442 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Maximum Volatility
It seems that everyone had the same feeling that the plays would be close and in lieu of that does my reasoning for wanting to make the other play not make sense?
It sure does. That was one of the thoughts I had in my mind as I was writing up the decision. We had chosen the swing play when we might have chosen to reduce volatility.
Another thought I had was about the commitment I made to the team before the match began. I said I would try not to have too heavy a hand during consultations. Unless I felt strongly, my plan was to go with the majority. I reiterated that plan early in this consultation, at a time when a preliminary count favored safety.
You could not have known without peeking at the votes, but if you had voted in the original thread, yours is the play we would have made. That vote ended with 12 out of 13 team members voting an exact tie, 5-5-2.
Both teams are playing a low PR, that’s for sure. We’re going to need a little luck to win this, and perhaps we just got some. I see where the Dillies just rolled 11. That will cost them a crossover and perhaps a little more as they race to beat the gammon.
Mike