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OLM 20140528A The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Thursday, 29 May 2014, at 7:41 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140528A The Prime Factors (Bob Koca)

Hi Bob,

you are right that the series of steps is not so clear. I didn't make a coherent analysis.

It would have been clearer had I stated it as follows:

With or without taking 2 off, after this move blue will need at least 6 non-doubles to take all the men off.

White needs 38 pips to get off the gammon.

Since his back-checkers are far away from home, white is flexible and will probably not waste a lot of pips.

The 6 blue non-doubles give white on average 48 pips race-time.

So the gammon-"race" is 38 - 48 = about 85%, is 15% gammons.

----------------------------------------------------------

You are right that taking 2off matters here, it enhances the chance that blue takes his men off in 6 moves (after this move).

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