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OLM 20140528A The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 28 May 2014, at 7:59 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140528A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

We have 13 crossovers to go. They have 8 crossovers.

Or we have 42 pips to race (effectively 48). And they need 38 pips to save the gammon.

Or we need 7 moves, which is 56 pips, so white will on average have 48 pips available.

In what range will the gammonchance be? The gammonrace is 38 - 48 when white is to move. So the "race"chance is about 85%.

So I guess there will be about 15% gammons here.

Taking 2 off makes us uneven, so it wont matter a lot, so the risk to play 5off 1off seems too high.

It also matters here that the white board is a winning board.

Answer: 5off 5/4

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