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P U problem -- Rollouts
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: P U problem (Nack Ballard)
Date: Tuesday, 20 May 2014, at 5:22 a.m.
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 160Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 179
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=-c---D-E----bA-A-cc-c--aD-:0:0:1:13:0:0:3:0:10 Originally posted position (inner boards on the RIGHT)
[P U18] "<=20
1. Rollout1 7/4 5/4 eq: -0.345
Player:
Opponent:43.40% (G:13.53% B:1.09%)
56.60% (G:23.14% B:3.01%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.351...-0.339) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 02 minutes2. Rollout1 24/21 24/23* eq: -0.362 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:41.75% (G:11.13% B:0.74%)
58.25% (G:18.26% B:1.39%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.368...-0.356) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 22 minutes1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92924208
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerI chose the "P U" part of the subject header for two reasons.
Firstly, "P U" (pronounced "pee you," like the letters) is a shorthand way of saying, "Wow, that smells bad!" The "P U" exclamation was popular when my generation was growing up, and perhaps more so in the midwestern region of the United States than elsewhere. Stick noticed, though perhaps didn't realize that my pun on the two moves nactated P and U was intentional. Taking that a step further, "P U" was meant as a subtle hint that something doesn't quite smell right about this problem! (Read on.)
Secondly (though I did remove the pipcount and XGID clues), if you look carefully at the original post, you'll see that according to the perimeter point numbers, the players are bearing off to the RIGHT, not the left. (Mike Mannon and ah_clem noticed, but they concluded that it was my mistake rather than my mischief.) The two best moves are still P (Point) and U (Up), but P actually refers to making the offensive 4pt, and U refers to moving two checkers up with 24/23* 24/21 (!).
Above is a rollout of the originally posted position, with the inner boards on the RIGHT. Below (followed by more text) is a rollout of the position people (understandably) thought I posted, with the inner boards on the LEFT. I tweaked until I found this position pair, the obverse and reverse, so that the decision of playing P or U works out to be very close with the checkers traveling in either direction.
........Obverse [P U18] "<=20
..........Reverse [P U7] "<=51[Like Stick, I prefer the style character of @ (anchor) for nactating 24/21 22/21 in the reverse position. I'm instead using the areal alternative U (Up) for consistency with the subject header.]
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 155Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 160
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=-b----E-D---cDa--c-cc-A-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10 Reverse position (inner boards on the LEFT)
[P U7] "<=51
1. Rollout1 8/5 6/5 eq: -0.139
Player:
Opponent:46.96% (G:14.05% B:0.78%)
53.04% (G:17.53% B:0.75%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.141...-0.136) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 day 01 hour 44 minutes2. Rollout1 24/21 22/21 eq: -0.146 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:45.65% (G:9.68% B:0.32%)
54.35% (G:9.84% B:0.37%)Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.148...-0.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 day 05 hours 17 minutes1 51840 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20067038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerThis "reverse" position can be reached as early as the fourth roll by the legally played sequence 62D-52S-11A.-31, or as early as the seventh roll by the well-played sequence 54S-21H-61U-21P-21U-51N-31.
Because so many people showed interest in this thread, I have done some analysis of the "reverse" (normal-looking) position, which includes three variants. It is built around my response to David Presser's post here.
Nack
P.S. Thanks to Xavier for coaching me on the use of "HTML images" in the "copy as" menu. As I understand it, with the "bgonline" option it is only possible to diagram inner boards to the left.
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