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Sly's Law steers me here

Posted By: phil simborg
Date: Monday, 19 May 2014, at 4:41 a.m.

In Response To: P U problem (Nack Ballard)

I was once given an excellent rule of thumb by Sly which has helped me in many situations like this. It is not always right, but it is rarely wrong by much when it isn't right: "Offense/offense, defense/defense."

When you are on the offensive, tend to make a more offensive play if you have a choice, and if you are on the defensive, tend to make a more defensive play.

In this position, you are clearly on the defense. You are down in the race slightly, and he has more inner board points and more builders to play either a hitting or priming game, so this calls for a defensive play: make opponent's 4 point.

Again, this play must be right, or if wrong, not by much. The other play might be right, but if wrong, it could be wrong by a lot.

Now, a more practical explanation: if you make your 5 point, I see some sequences where you get pointed on or hit loose and flunk and you are cubed. Make opponent's 4 point and I don't see anything but 6-6 and 4-4 that can do you much damage, and even after those rolls I see at least a take.

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