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Advanced Backgammon #120 -- Rollout and Variants (no free porn)

Posted By: Igor
Date: Sunday, 18 May 2014, at 8:39 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #120 (Igor)

This is actually a borderline take, notice how blue's hitting and covering numbers are diversified.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 98
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBCC-----dC---b-ba-cabA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.15% (G:33.53% B:0.58%) 66.26% (G:36.21% B:0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.85% (G:5.86% B:0.07%) 33.74% (G:6.15% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.605 +1.264
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.420 (-0.573)±0.002 (+0.418..+0.422)
Double/Take:+0.993±0.003 (+0.990..+0.997)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.007)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47187089
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 32 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Duplicate one of those numbers and it's an easier take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 98
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABCBC-----dC---b-ba-cabA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.20% (G:33.49% B:0.59%) 66.07% (G:35.47% B:0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.80% (G:5.85% B:0.07%) 33.93% (G:6.20% B:0.09%)
Cubeless Equities +0.606 +1.240
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.426 (-0.544)±0.007 (+0.419..+0.434)
Double/Take:+0.971±0.013 (+0.958..+0.983)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.029)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47187089
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Duplicate both and it's a huge take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 97
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABCBC-----dC---b-b-acabA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.39% (G:29.29% B:0.54%) 61.12% (G:31.58% B:0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.61% (G:6.53% B:0.11%) 38.88% (G:6.86% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.460 +0.950
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.270 (-0.358)±0.007 (+0.262..+0.277)
Double/Take:+0.628±0.013 (+0.615..+0.641)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.372)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 47187089
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Bring one white checker back into play and it's a huge take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBCC-----dC---b-ca-babA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.52% (G:31.58% B:0.53%) 63.58% (G:33.99% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.48% (G:7.06% B:0.09%) 36.42% (G:7.39% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities +0.520 +1.085
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.343 (-0.452)±0.006 (+0.337..+0.348)
Double/Take:+0.795±0.012 (+0.783..+0.807)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.205)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37824042
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Bring two more white checkers down and it's still a double





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 89
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBCC-----bC---c-da-babA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.65% (G:21.28% B:0.36%) 57.95% (G:23.43% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.35% (G:8.64% B:0.10%) 42.05% (G:8.91% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.282 +0.614
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.116 (-0.090)±0.007 (+0.109..+0.123)
Double/Take:+0.206±0.014 (+0.192..+0.220)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.794)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37824042
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

but only because we want to activate our gammons due to Jacoby rule:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 89
Unlimited Game
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBCC-----bC---c-da-babA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.69% (G:23.66% B:0.41%) 57.98% (G:23.42% B:0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.31% (G:8.99% B:0.13%) 42.02% (G:8.93% B:0.14%)
Cubeless Equities +0.303 +0.614
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.212±0.001 (+0.211..+0.213)
Double/Take:+0.209 (-0.003)±0.003 (+0.206..+0.211)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.788)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.4%
Rollout details
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37824042
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 39 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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