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63S-65K-1-C.–4–p

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 15 April 2014, at 11:13 a.m.

In Response To: 63S-65K-1-C.–4–p (scotty)

I wasn't sure how to expand on it other than saying that wasn't true. Not sure where you heard that or perhaps you heard it referring to something else and misapplied it. First we should prove that at post Crawford 4 away we don't need to win as many gammons as our opponent wins games. Here's XGR++ after 31P-21S and we see we're borderline too good winning only 18% gammons yet still losing 42% games. Clearly if we were only a smidge better we'd be clearly TG. That's because things aren't likely to go wrong where we won't still have a cash next turn and they could go well. We will have to carefully reassess every turn before deciding to keep playing on or doubling. (hopefully cashing when we are forced to cube)





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 164
4 point match
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:3:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.53% (G:17.91% B:0.83%) 57.05% (G:19.86% B:0.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.47% (G:10.66% B:0.48%) 42.95% (G:11.18% B:0.56%)
Cubeless Equities +0.335 +1.356
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.999 (-0.001)
Double/Take:+1.356 (+0.356)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Stick

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