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BGonline.org Forums
Cube action ATS?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Cube action ATS? (ah_clem)
Date: Saturday, 25 January 2014, at 4:51 a.m.
Ah_clem wrote "Does he have 9% here? White needs to leave a shot and then brown needs to hit it. It seems like you wind up being forced to leave a shot about 505 of the time, and it's then a 30% chance to hit it for an overall hit rate something like 15%. But then brown needs to contain the hit checker and her board is going to crunch unless white puts her on the bar, so that reduces the win rate considerably."
Most of the immediate hits (where White hits loose but keeps his 6-prime and gets hit back) don't matter. The only meaningful hits are ones that occur after White breaks the 6-prime like an immediate D6,65, or some future shot in the bearoff. The chance that White will have to leave one of these shots is far less than 50%.
Black also isn't going to crunch very often since White will either PoH or hit loose with all but a few of his next rolls. Black's board will only crunch a lot if he hits back after White hits loose (it also might crunch a little if White fails to hit at all). So most of Black's meaningful hits will be game-winners since they will come when he still has a 5 or 6-pt board and White will have few, if any, checkers borne off.
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