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major disagreement between GnuBG 0-4 ply and rollout...or, am I doing it wrong?!

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 19 May 2013, at 12:19 a.m.

In Response To: major disagreement between GnuBG 0-4 ply and rollout...or, am I doing it wrong?! (Timothy Chow)

Timothy: ...an accurate estimate of absolute equity (and not just relative equity) is required for a cube decision.

I’d like to hear some more about this. I do not fully understand the mechanics a bot’s doubling decisions. I know that it involves more than just a straight eval at a given ply, because there is some lookahead involved to determine volatility. The details, however, are a blur.

I have seen a bot badly estimate the equities in a cube decision, but still come up with the correct choice. GnuBg, for instance, often underestimates the cubeful equities of “Centered 1-cube” and “Player X owns 2-cube.” Frequently, both will rise as much as 0.10 or more in a rollout. In many positions, the same error (i.e., bias) affects both equities.

In this sense then, are not cube actions based on relative equities? When the “double/take” equity exceeds the “no double” equity, it’s time to ship it over. So long as both quantities contain the same bias, the relative comparison will yield an accurate decision.

Mike

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