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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 30 November 2012, at 2:31 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

OTB, I figured my redoubling window opened around 15% and closed at 60%. If I roll an average 8 pips and play 17/9, my EPC will be 40.5 while Black will be on roll with around 37. According to the late Walter Trice, my point of last take at a normal match score would be an EPC of 39, so that tells me my chances are less than 22% in this game. This puts me barely into the redoubling window so I figured it was NR since I didn't have many market losers. That turns out to be correct but it's closer than I thought.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 23
13 point match
pip: 31
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-DBB-------------A---bcbb-:2:1:1:00:4:8:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 20.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 20.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 79.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 79.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.591 -0.477
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.433±0.001 (-0.434..-0.432)
Redouble/Take:-0.477 (-0.044)±0.000 (-0.477..-0.477)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.433)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

Moving the straggler up two pips is enough to make it a marginal redouble.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 23
13 point match
pip: 29
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-DBB-----------A-----bcbb-:2:1:1:00:4:8:0:13:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 27.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 27.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 72.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 72.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.447 -0.203
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.214 (-0.011)±0.001 (-0.215..-0.213)
Redouble/Take:-0.203±0.000 (-0.203..-0.203)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+1.203)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3.4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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