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Winning chances at GS/GG

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 7 January 2012, at 12:36 a.m.

In Response To: Winning chances at GS/GG (Jeroen Sikkema)

I asked this before and according to Neil Kazaross, the winning chances at GG/GS are extremely close to 50%. (Unfortunately, I don't seem to be able to find the thread where this was discussed.)

If we let x denote the GWC of the GG player and we let y denote the fraction of the GG player's wins that are gammons, then the MWC of the GG player is

x*y + x*(1 – y)*0.5

and if we set this equal to 0.3231 (per Rockwell-Kazaross) and set x = 0.5, then y = 0.2924. That is, about 29% of the the GG player's wins are gammons.

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